The Russian military is about twenty years behind, compared to Western powers. In everything that they do. Why did they so badly misjudge the Ukrainian resistance? I saw many opponents who are not that out dated want to arm wrestling with the Russian military, and end up being feed calendar It has never been d They need to be escorted by infantry troops alongside or by combat planes from above, to avoid getting ambushed. As a result, Wagner should be considered a proxy organization of the Russian state rather than a private company selling services on the Furthermore, inadequate financing and military-industrial deficiencies have resulted in years of delays even for prominent projects like the Su-57 stealth fighter, T-14 Armata tank, and S-500 air defense system. The military mobilized an unspecified amount of Of course, it is hard to have 100% of recent equipment and machinery when you have a sizeable army. Bakhmut is also where the Kremlin-aligned mercenary organization the Wagner Group has been leading the push, suffering heavy losses along the way, many of which are from the convicts recruited into the group. According to russian sources, the cost of one modified A-50U filled with valuable electronics is close to $330 million. Russian authorities appear to be escalating their promotion of false flag information operations to distract from their lack of tangible battlefield gains and slow down the provision of Western tanks and other aid in advance of expected Ukrainian counter-offensives. Videos taken by Ukrainian fighters and shared online have shown Russian tanks attempting to cross fields and roads, only to crash to a halt as a mine blows up beneath them. [80], Belarusian maneuver elements continue conducting exercises in Belarus. [31]Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that the situation in Bakhmut is becoming increasingly complicated, and Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky remarked that Wagner is increasingly committing its most prepared assault units to offensives in the area. Over the last few weeks, Putin has signaled an urgency for Russia to streamline and update its army's administration procedures and weapons production. They don't address non-state actors. [71]ISW reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed in a February 16 meeting with Russian Commissioner for Childrens Rights Maria Lvova-Belova that the Kremlin is directly involved in facilitating the deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families. You've written extensively about these groups. Have they proved reliable in the past? The small central European country now hosts thousands of NATO troops while allied aircraft patrol its skies, allowing Bratislava to consider becoming Heightened tensions with Russia have given new life to some enduring myths about Russia's military. The photograph is said to have been taken in late 2022. I'm talking about sort of turning different parties against each other. [8]Putin also emphasized that the FSBs primary purpose is to support the Russian Armed Forces and Rosgvardia in their efforts to accomplish the objectives of the special military operation and noted the FSBs role in preventing incursions of Ukrainian sabotage groups onto Russian territory. In the fall, after losing swaths of land in Ukraines east, Russia tried to take the Ukrainian town of Bakhmut, three hours south from Vuhledar. 2 Dec 2022 Brussels, Belgium Ten months into Russias war in Ukraine, the war of words between the Kremlin and the West continues. Who pays them? The reporter and at least one editor know the identity of the source. He made those remarks while his coordination council met to discuss what Putin called "arising issues" in the defense sector, among other industries, per the Kremlin. Unspecified Belarusian airborne elementslikely of the Belarusian 38th Airborne Brigade conducted airborne parachute exercises from Il-76 aircraft at the Brest Training Ground in Brest, Belarus, on February 28.[81]. [78]The images do not show any obvious damage to the aircraft fuselage but do seemingly show color differences on the aircrafts wings and radar dome, potentially indicating repainting. [24], Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Kreminna on February 28. Every day, Pentagon officials caution that Russias military will soon correct its mistakes, perhaps shutting off communications across the country, cutting off Mr. Zelensky from his commanders. Claim: According to a February 2023 video message, U.S. President Joe Biden had invoked the Selective Service Act, which will draft 20-year-olds through lottery to the military as a result of a [47]Ukraines Southern Operational Command reported that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance occasionally try to move between islands in the Dnipro River in converted civilian vessels and that Ukrainian forces destroyed two of these watercraft on February 28. [65], Some Russians continue limited resistance to the war in Ukraine. [67]Meduzareported on February 27 that Russian authorities are prosecuting a single father in Efremov, Tula Oblast after his daughter drew an anti-war graphic in an art class. [73]The Ukrainian General Prosecutors Office reported on February 28 that Russian officials have forcibly removed 16,000 Ukrainian children from Ukraine to Russia and Belarus and that Ukrainian officials have managed to return 307 of those children to Ukrainian-held territory. | Ukrainian Southern Operational Command spokesperson Natalia Humenyuk stated that Russian shelling of Mykolaiv Oblast has become less intense because Russian forces are hesitant to go to the end of the Kinburn Spit to shell Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast and surrounding areas. Nicholas Slayton [60]A prominent Russian milblogger on February 28 amplified a report from a Russian soldier on December 9 that Russia has also fallen behind Ukrainian forces in terms of drone production and drone-operator training. Hence the stories of captured Russian troops who had no idea why they were in Ukraine. But if our - if these Wagner guys can go up against Delta Force and put up a fight, you know, that tells you what they're capable of. Weapons manufacturers should get feedback from soldiers, he said on Wednesday. [46], Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to engage in reconnaissance activity and skirmishes in the Dnipro River delta. This is reflected in the Ground Force's preferred ad-hoc fighting formation, the Battalion Tactical Group, which combines infantry and tank companies with an unusually large quantity of artillery. Full speed into the obvious minefield. [23]Another milblogger claimed that assault detachment elements of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division (20th Guards Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) pushed Ukrainian forces out of unspecified high-ground positions on the Svatove-Kreminna line. For over a decade, Russia has undergone a great modernization of its military. Image: AP. After four days of fighting, the Russian military is bogged down in Ukraine. Ukrainian Polohy Mayor Yuriy Konovalenko reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian force concentration area in the southern part of Polohy, Zaporizhia Oblast, on February 27. Apoorva Kaul . And the Russians, mercenaries and the troll factory work hand in hand. And the reason why Russia likes mercenaries, particularly this one group called the Wagner Group, is because they give the Kremlin great plausible deniability. [25]A Russian milblogger claimed that while Russian forces in Luhansk Oblast still have the initiative, Russian offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast are unsuccessful, supporting ISWs previous assessment that the Russian forces offensive in Luhansk Oblast lacks sufficient reserves to increase the scale or intensity of the offensive. As the resistance mounts and as the Russians offensive is thwarted, Putin and his generals can be expected to turn up the heat, shellingand, recently, bombingcities, destroying whatever they can destroy, for destructions sake. Should this continue, this may further accelerate an end to the war. [44]Humenyuk stated that Ukrainian forces immediately locate Russian artillery units on the Kinburn Spit once they fire and that these Russian units do not have enough time to evacuate the area before Ukrainian forces conduct counterbattery fire. Satellite imagery taken on February 28 shows the first pictures of the A-50 since Belarusian partisans reportedly attacked it on February 26. That said, Russias invasion of Ukraine has been particularly sluggish and flawed. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on February 28 that Russian officials are open to negotiations to end the war in Ukraine but that Ukraine and the West must recognize new territorial realities associated with Russias illegal annexation of occupied territories in Ukraine. Whats their motivation for telling us? Only 64% of Russian military equipment and machinery is new or recent. The Russian army has always been bad at setting up and sustaining supply lines. On Friday, he told Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu that the military's registration and enlistment offices have to be modernized, noting "certain problems, difficulties" in Russia's mobilization of 300,000 reservists, per Russian news outlet Moscow 24. It is 82% in Strategic Nuclear Forces, but only 48,3% in the Ground Forces. It is why Ukrainian soldiers explicitly attacked the Russian supply lines. Nor should one overcompensate by dismissing enduring qualitative and economic limitations Russia's military must make up for. Ukraine has shot down military transport planes carrying Russian paratroopers, downed helicopters and blown holes in Russias convoys using American anti-tank missiles and armed drones supplied by Turkey, these officials said, citing confidential U.S. intelligence assessments. [35]Footage taken by a Ukrainian soldier in Chasiv Yar shows heavy incoming fire directed at the settlement, suggesting that Russian forces are continuing to strike areas along the T0504 Kostiantynivka-Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut highway. Have they proved reliable in the past? [37]Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian troops broke through Ukrainian defensive lines in Pobieda and gained new footholds within Marinka. Switchblade 300 Used to Target Russian Positions: There is an old idiom that you dont bring a knife to a gunfight meaning you should never enter a confrontation or Russia's Army is primarily made up of poorly trained conscripts. Russian armor losses have been so severe that military leadership is dipping into a fleet of outdated vehicles. Sign up for notifications from Insider! Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 Luhansk Oblast (, Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2Donetsk Oblast, Russian forces continued ground attacks near Bakhmut and made tactical gains within Bakhmut on February 28. Former Soviet satellite Slovakia has been a NATO member since 2004, but the reality of belonging to the worlds biggest military alliance really kicked in after Copyright 2022 NPR. Gen. Rauno Sirk, in an interview with a local newspaper, was even more blunt in his assessment of the Russian air force. And while the West was still scratching its head about what was really going on in eastern Ukraine, Crimea was a fait accompli. [26]Geolocated footage published on February 27 showed two Russian tanks firing at Ukrainian positions west of Chervonopopivka (5km north of Kreminna) indicating limited Russian advances. Russian officials and media insist there is a moral cause for Russias invasion of Ukraine and describe it as necessary for the survival of Russians and the Russian world. The Kremlin spent the last 20 years trying to modernize its military, said Andrei V. Kozyrev, the foreign minister for Russia under Boris Yeltsin, in a post on Twitter. A Russian tank destroyed by Ukrainian forces in the region of Luhansk on Saturday. Russian forces attacked residential neighborhoods of Mykolaiv, Ukraine, with artillery on Monday. [51]Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces struck Kherson City, Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, and Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Stay up to date with what you want to know. He holds a master's degree from Georgetown University and served with the Peace Corps in China. There is a larger factor here: The Russian army is composed, by and large, of one-year conscripts, who are poorly trained (even within the confines of Russian military training), badly treated, and uninspired by ideology or any other motivating spirit. In total, russia has only 6 A-50Us and 3 A Russian bomber crew successfully landed their stricken aircraft in a field after the one of the airplanes engines failed. Videos show lead tanks getting disabled and the following tanks struggling to maneuver without meeting the same fate. While the shortcomings of Russia's one-year conscripts are real, they now constitute a large minority, not the majority of Russia's military. An unknown flying object was sighted this morning near one of the military installations, approximately 180 kilometre (112 miles) away from St. Petersburg, hometown of Vladimir Putin. ISW will revise this text and its assessment if it observes any unambiguous indicators that Russia or Belarus is preparing to attack northern Ukraine. Yet, in this invasion, Russian tanks are rolling all on their own or providing protection for reconnaissance scouts, but getting no protection for themselves. [64]https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1630478324215455745;https://t.me [65]https://t.me/grey_zone/17471;https://t.me/concordgroup_official/528; [66]https://www.fontanka dot ru/2023/02/27/72090578/; https://t.me/astrapress/21942. Faced with bad weather in northern Ukraine, the Russian officers grounded some Russian attack planes and helicopters, and forced others to fly at lower altitudes, making them more vulnerable to Ukrainian ground fire, a senior Pentagon official said. It's unlikely. [7]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign [8]http://en.kremlindot ru/events/president/news/70597, [9]http://en.kremlindot ru/events/president/news/70597. British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace claimed, citing reports, that a Russian brigade was effectively annihilated and 1,000 fighters killed between Feb. 14-15. That Russia has so quickly abandoned surgical strikes, instead killing civilians trying to flee, could damage Mr. Putins chances of winning a long-term war in Ukraine. The Russian soldiers have been plagued by poor morale as well as fuel and food shortages. However, some of their age-old weaknesses havent been fixed at all. If Step 2 hit a big obstacle, the by-the-book soldiers moved on to Step 3 anyway. But the Russian army isnt cut out for lightning strikes. Kherson Oblast occupation administration head Vladimir Saldo called on teachers from Russia to teach in Kherson Oblast, specifically Russian history, and stated that his administration intends to shape the educational curriculum with lessons on patriotism and military affairs under the guidance of the Russian Military Historical Society. The military mobilized an unspecified amount of BTR-50 armored personnel carriers, which have been spotted in Russian-occupied territory. The Ukrainians have obliterated several old tanks armed with abundant anti-tank-guided missiles. [1] The Russian MoD relatedly claimed on February 19 that Ukrainian officials are planning false-flag attacks at hazardous radiation facilities in Ukraine to accuse Russian forces of indiscriminately striking such sites. [19]Lukashenko previously stated that the Belarusian defense industry can produce weapons since Belarus has access to microelectronics, optics, and other component imports from other states. And the battle last - was in a stalemate for two hours between our best and these mercenaries until we called in our air support - you know, B-52s - well, not - like, AC-130 gunships, Apache helicopters, Predators. Russia's invasion of Ukraine, now approaching its ninth month, has revealedsystemic flaws in its army's logistics, war doctrine, and military technology. More recently, after an underwhelming performance in a war with Georgia in 2008, in 2009 Moscow began a new drive to reorganize, professionalize, modernize and selectively recapitalize its military. They've moved troops around the country in slow, lumbering convoys that have seemed to get stuck at times, and they've had trouble keeping up their supply lines. The Ukrainian General Staff amplified on February 28 a report from Ukraines Head of the Center for Trophy Research, Colonel Alexander Zaruba, assessing that Russian purchases of equipment from North Korea and Iran and deployment of outdated Kh-22 missiles indicate that Russia itself cannot meet wartime production needs. They're not all Russian citizens, but they are all, like, in the former Soviet, you know, sphere. Relative to GDP, Russia outranks even the United States, with 4.3 percent of its economic output going to the military, versus 3.7 percent. The result is that Ukraine, using Javelin anti-tank missiles, has stalled the convoy headed for Kyiv by blowing up tank after tank. Got an acquitance whos already been serving for like 12 years and holds a senior NCO rank. Russia has closed down the airspace over the Pulkovo Airport in St Petersburg after an unidentified flying object was spotted, according to reports. Russia has advanced fighter planes, a formidable navy and marines capable of multiple amphibious landings, as they proved early in the invasion when they launched from the Black Sea and headed toward the city of Mariupol. Given the struggles the Russian military has had conducting precision strikes to force a surrender of Ukrainian military units, Moscows forces are likely to step up the kind of broader attacks that have led to rising numbers of civilian deaths. The resistance will continue, especially now that practically every nation in NATO is supplying Ukraine with weapons. The latest: Ukraines air defenses thwarted a number of Russian missiles fired at targets across the country on Thursday. [16]Lukashenko also blamed the West and the US for coercing Ukrainian officials into rejecting negotiations with Russia. Anyone can read what you share. Russian occupation officials continue efforts to use educational institutions to eradicate Ukrainian identity in occupied territories. While the Russian armys troubles are real, the publics view of the fight is skewed by the realities of the information battlefield. He's going back to the 1940s. And though Russia still lacks equivalent to many US systems, in turn, it has land-based artillery, air-defense, and tactical ballistic-missile capabilities the US doesn't yet field because of Washington's greater reliance on air power, and it's moving forward with integrating a variety of armed drones into service in the 2020s. As a subscriber, you have 10 gift articles to give each month. Russia has closed down the airspace over the Pulkovo Airport in St Petersburg after an unidentified flying object was spotted, according to reports. [3]Russian President Vladimir Putin also notably re-introduced nuclear rhetoric into the Russian information space during his address to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 21 when he announced Russias intent to suspend participation in START. [52], Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts(Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization), Several Russian opposition news sourcesreported on February 28 that Armenian police detained Russian citizen Nikita Kamensky in Yerevan, Armenia for vandalism, ostensibly because Russian authorities added him to their wanted persons databasein December for allegedly painting anti-war slogans on Timiryazevskaya Metro Station, Moscow in July. Theyve sent in only about two-thirds of the troops and weapons that had been poised on the Ukrainian border. Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin is currently in a war of words with the Russian military, accusing it of not supplying his organization with ammunition. The Patriot air defence is outdated. Russia's mobilization of 300,000 reservists, destruction of much of its equipment in battle. Like, the troll factory creates disinformation, creates the fog of war. [36], Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts. Please try again. This is what the Russian military has done elsewhere, notably in Chechnya, when its officers feel frustrated. In the years immediately following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian military The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Kreminna itself, Makiivka (22km northwest of Kreminna), Nevske (18km northwest of Kreminna), Ploshchanka (17km northwest of Kreminna), Dibrova (6km southwest of Kreminna), and Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna). The extension of Russian prosecution efforts and Armenian cooperation are both significant events, though it is noteworthy that Russia and Armenia have an existing extradition treaty. The photograph is said to have been taken in late 2022. These events suggest that there is a decline in the Russian militarys commitment to continue the war. When Russian forces rolled into neighboring Georgia in 2008, they carried the baggage of an outdated Soviet-era military: subpar communications, old equipment Accuracy and availability may vary. [62], Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is likely using a potentially staged appeal of mobilized soldiers seeking to join Wagner PMC in hopes of improving Wagner PMCs reputation and appeal to potential recruits. President Vladimir Putin could still reduce cities in Ukraine to rubble, officials say. It added: "Due to the lack of high-precision weapons, [32]Russian milbloggers claimed that Wagner forces are trying to advance on central Bakhmut from the north near the Stupky station and from positions on the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut. [42]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dDf2w34VWwwcuYqnxSQ [44]https://armyinform.comdot ua/2023/02/28/kinburnska-kosa-kvytok-v-odyn-kinecz-dlya-okupanta-nataliya-gumenyuk/, [45]https://armyinform.comdot ua/2023/02/28/kinburnska-kosa-kvytok-v-odyn-kinecz-dlya-okupanta-nataliya-gumenyuk/, [46]https://suspilnedot media/399500-rosijski-okupanti-ogolosuut-evakuaciu-koli-zbirautsa-tikati-gumenuk-pro-situaciu-na-livoberezzi-hersonsini/ ;https://suspilnedot media/398990-armia-rf-obstrilue-okupovani-naseleni-punkti-hersonsini-sob-vipravdati-svou-vtecu-gumenuk/. We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. The northeastern city of Kharkiv was expected to fall within hours of the invasion; it is battered by an onslaught of rocket fire and shelling, but still standing. Click here. [30]The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself; north of Bakhmut near Dubovo-Vasylivka (6km northwest), Orikhovo-Vasylivka (10km northwest), Berkhkivka (4km north), Yahidne (1km northwest), Vasyukivka (13km northwest), and Bohdanivka (8km northwest); west of Bakhmut near Chasiv Yar (10km west); and southwest of Bakhmut near Bila Hora (15km southwest). Today what I have seen is that even this huge army or military is not so huge, said Lt. Gen. Martin Herem, Estonias chief of defense, during a news conference at an air base in northern Estonia with Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that Russia's weapons should be modernized, in a rare hint that the Kremlin is acknowledging its military hardware is outdated. MCFATE: Well, I've had a couple of conversations - well, more than a few with Wagner Group mercenaries. MARTIN: And do you - there has been as - we've had a number of discussions about war crimes being committed in Ukraine. It'll be horrific. Putin seems to be following a manual out of the last century, not this one. [5]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass [6]https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-does-not-see-significant-near-term-r https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmwk4/pentagon-putin-nukes-ukraine. #Ukraine #Vuhledar #Donetsk pic.twitter.com/bIqWpLpcnZ. However, this change may have no real impact, as present mobilization law prohibits contract soldiers from quitting even after their contracts expire. And it's puzzling because Putin is a - he's been a leader in modern warfare not in terms of it being morally good, but in, as you said earlier, hybrid war. Geolocated footage published on February 27 claims to show Ukrainian Special Forces conducting a raid against Russian forces on Krukhlyk Island (4km south of Kherson City) and likely indicates that Ukrainian forces hold positions on at least the northern part of neighboring Velikiy Potemkin Island. A top US defense official supported ISWs continued assessment that Russia is extraordinarily unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Russia Is Still Using 60-Year-Old Tanks in Ukraine. The Russian advance is ponderous, retired Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, a former NATO supreme allied commander for Europe, said at a virtual Atlantic Conference event on the crisis last Friday. This whole question of what constitutes a war crime in the modern era was established in the Geneva Convention in 1949. Pretty outdated. Only 64% of Russian military equipment and machinery is new or recent. It is 82% in Strategic Nuclear Forces, but only 48,3% in th But even more critical are losses of heavily armed, but lightly armored BMP [42]Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko reported that Russian forces have transferred between 20,000 and 25,000 personnel from Mariupol Raion, Donetsk Oblast, to unspecified areas of the front, although Russian forces likely transferred most of these personnel to areas of active offensive operations elsewhere in Donetsk Oblast. This is possible due to the new capabilities of surveillance drones and electronic warfare units to ferret out enemy positions without having to push as many human scouts into harm's way. The vice president last week, in her visit to Poland, in her public statement, she was asked about this. As part of that conflict, he is posting photos of dead Wagner soldiers in Bakhmut, giving a glimpse at how severe Russian losses are in the battle. Rather, we need to move past stereotypes even those with some historical basis that mischaracterize what Russia's military can and can't do today. You know, the U.S. Marine Corps? The idea of an arms treaty between the two nations may be outdated. [10]Putins address to the FSB similarly aligns the FSB and its traditional domestic law enforcement and counterterrorism role with Russian military efforts in Ukraine in order to frame Russian victory in the war as necessary for Russias domestic security. Moscows forces are likely to step up the kind of broader attacks that have led to rising numbers of civilian deaths. She said there should be an investigation. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused the US and its accomplices on February 28 of planning to carry out a provocation in Ukraine using toxic chemicals. [6]ISW has assessed that Russian invocations of nuclear threats and nuclear doctrine are part of an information operation meant to discourage Ukraine and the West but do not represent any material Russian intent to employ nuclear weapons. (Photo by Mustafa Ciftci/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images). The result: Militaries in Europe that once feared Russia say they are not as intimidated by Russian ground forces as they were in the past. [1]https://t.me/mod_russia/24466;https://t.me/mod_russia/24467;https:// [2]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign https://t.me/mod_russia/24273, [3]https://isw.pub/UkrWar022323; https://isw.pub/UkrWar02242023. Nco rank been so severe that military leadership is dipping into a fleet of outdated vehicles continue the war if! Publics view of the fight is skewed by the realities of the fight is skewed by realities! 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City, Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, and Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is extraordinarily unlikely to use educational institutions eradicate. Blamed the West and the troll factory creates disinformation, creates the fog of war Belarusian partisans reportedly it.