And I think its worth noting that things in the Colorado River basin can be highly variable year to year, and a few good snow years can change peoples opinions quite a bit. One leg would involve reducing water demand by farmers and cities in the Upper Basin. If the reservoir dips below 895 feet a possibility still years . If that does come to pass, Tyrell said he is fairly confident we can deal with worst case scenario if it ever happens.. As Lake Mead outside Las Vegas and Lake Powell in Utah decline, certain policies are triggered into action. The lower basin is made up of Arizona, Nevada, and California. The lake ended at a sediment-choked delta, where Balken jumped out into the muck for a hike up the canyon. 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As of Thursday, Lake Mead was at 1,045.79 feet. The reservoir is integrating all the problems we have, all the challenges we face show up in that one number, in that one place, he said. Thats about the amount of water that our soils are behind in terms of what they normally would have, Meyer said. Brad Udall, a water researcher at Colorado State University whos not involved with the contingency plan, is less optimistic. He and his wife have four cats, thousands of bees, and a yoga studio in the sleepy Northwest hills of Connecticut. What would constitute that? Broadly speaking, dropping levels have created a lot of unanswered questions about the future. The Bureau's projections show a 3% chance that Lake Powell's water levels fall below the minimum level necessary for the lake's Glen Canyon Dam to generate hydroelectricity next year. During those 25 years, the rivers annual flow averaged 13.2 million acre feet a bit less than what the Bureau of Reclamations studies have predicted it would carry by 2050 thanks to warming weather and other climate changes, Ostler noted. But Lake Powell's current water level is the lowest since it was first filled almost 60 years ago. A . "It would kill 50 to 60% of the businesses in town," said Franz. This cookie is set by Facebook to display advertisements when either on Facebook or on a digital platform powered by Facebook advertising, after visiting the website. SiteLock sets this cookie to provide cloud-based website security services. 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Because the deficit is so substantial, Meyer said its very likely the watershed will see drought conditions persist in 2021. Created by Bluecadet. And so when you have snow thats melting off, it gets soaked up into the ground before it flows into a river or flows into a reservoir. 30 Broad Street, Suite 801 And this is just the beginning of what could happen if the lake keeps drying up. And it takes several years of good weather in order to bring the system out of drought. At 3,490 feet, Glen Canyon Dam reaches "minimum power pool." Northern Colorado Center for Investigative Reporting, Hydropower Worries Grow As Colorado River Reservoirs Keep Dropping, News brief with The Colorado Sun: The beauty and danger of skating on wild ice, LGBTQ+ youth are less likely to feel depressed with parental support, study says, 3 abortion bans in Texas leave doctors 'talking in code' to pregnant patients, Pandemic food assistance that held back hunger comes to an end. The D4 category is something that is only supposed to be designated when youre seeing conditions that are so extreme theyre only happening once every 50 to once every 100 years, said Becky Bolinger, Colorados assistant state climatologist. Why is Lake Mead drying up? This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. An acre-foot is the amount of water needed to fill one acre of land to a height of one foot. She said the very fact that officials in Washington, D.C. are getting involved underscores the urgency of Lake Powells crisis. The year as I write is now 2018. A drying climate and withering heat in recent years have pummeled the region: water cuts to farmers, dry wells, mass fish and bird die-offs, and depleted reservoirs that have decimated hydropower output. And its staring down the possibility of losing access to a third or more of its water in the next year. Lake powell has an electrical generation station there. The historic megadrought that is squeezing some Western states water supplies will also likely start showing up in energy bills, because those dams cant produce as much electricity. A years worth of rain and snow is missing from Utahs ground. Thanks so much for joining us. Even if nothing is done, he believes the risk quite low. This is the highest percentage of land in the rivers Upper Basin since 2002, which stands as the regions driest year on record. But its fundamental purpose under the federal law that created it is to serve as a water insurance policy for the Colorado River Basin. It supplies water and power to Arizona, California and Nevada. Nothing physically changed at that threshold, but its the agreed-upon alarm bell for trouble in the near future. If the reservoir dips below 895 feet a possibility still years. In March, the reservoir passed an important threshold. Meanwhile, Lake Powells projected decline in 2021 recently triggered the Upper Basin plan to be used for the first time. Falling water levels at Lake Mead and Lake Powell have been concerning for several years. The April-July forecast for Colorado River runoff into Lake Powell is 74 percent of average. And thats because some of these past agreements have put that state in the most vulnerable position for cutbacks. Exceptional drought is a category that is supposed to capture the severity and frequency of an extended dry period. 1. LUKE RUNYON: Well, I dont have a crystal ball. Lake Powell, the nation's second-largest reservoir and one thatprovides water and power to millions of people in southern California, has reached its lowest levels since its first filling in the 1960s. In March, the reservoir passed an important threshold. Much of the water from the river is used for irrigation and agricultural uses, but there are municipal users, as well. The Lower Basins legal share is 7.5 million acre feet a year. Alex is KUNC's reporter covering the Colorado River Basin. The level has risen over the winter months due to rainfall and particularly cold weather to hit parts of the U.S. And those cutbacks are spelled out in agreements that the states and the federal government have put together in order to manage some of that decline. Lake Powell is also a popular tourist destination for water recreation. Lake Powell (credit: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation) The power pool mark is 3,490 feet of elevation. Lake Powell is hemmed by the Glen Canyon Dam, which generates hydroelectric power via the dam's water flowing through the dam back into the Colorado River. Thats the first time it has ever dipped below the buffer elevation of 3,525. In those cases, what's revealed is the dry and dusty lake-bedwhich can be a problem in its own right. JOHN DANKOSKY: When you use the term megadrought, that sounds like a newer term. The negotiations promise to be a more intense process than the basin saw in the lead-up to the last set of guidelines in 2007, or the effort to bring together drought contingency plans in 2019. Hes a reporter at KUNC, based in Fort Collins, Colorado. Regardless of what they decide, theyre dealing with a steadily diminishing supply. What does the forecast look like? All told, about 40 million people in the region depend on the Colorado River and its tributaries, not to mention the fish and the birds and the other wildlife that depend on its water as well. "I've been here since 2007 and obviously this is way lower than I've ever seen it.". The regions been looking warily at the reservoirs along this long river that winds its way from Colorados Rocky Mountains all the way to Mexico, just shy of the Gulf of California. Air entering the system would also damage the generators. Lake Powell is a few hundred feet above dead-pool level. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. The Colorado River cuts through dry land that was once covered by Lake Powell on September 7, 2022, near Hite, Utah. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. Getty Images. Lake Powell is supposed to buffer water supply during times of drought [and] it is not performing that function now. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The answer is almost certainly, no, we're not at the bottom of impacts, said Zach Frankel, executive director of the Utah Rivers Council. "You might not see the lush lawns of today and endless fields of alfalfa, but you will see thriving communities and agricultural regions. When its needed its released to Lake Mead and the three Lower Basin states. If decision makers do nothing and take no action and just let the reservoir crash without structurally modifying the dam, there will be a lot of really big problems.. The river basin is governed bya centuries-old agreement that allocates more water than flows through the river, and the federal Bureau of Reclamation has called on states to reduce water use by 2 million to 4 million acre-feet. Lake Mead's decline is not happening in isolation, but is the result of a two-decade drought hitting the western U.S. and causing critical water shortages on the Colorado River. Share on Facebook; . And data updated Monday from the California Department of Water Resources' tracker show the reservoir climbing to 60%, still below historical levels for February 72% but significantly higher than it had been. Hawes noted that the lake has never reached that point before, creating substantial uncertainty about what would happen. But if the regions dry period repeats itself, he said, youll need fundamental change. His uncle, Stewart Udall, voted to create Lake Powell as an Arizona congressman in 1956 and shepherded construction of the Glen Canyon Dam that holds back the lake while he was interior secretary in the early 1960s. A patchwork of other measures has been deployed throughout the Colorado River basin throughout the past few years, as drought and demand keep sapping reservoirs. We know that well lose hydropower, and they wont be able to make hydropower below 3,490, she said. However, experts have warned such measures cannot be a long-term solution. Nimbull: It dries up a lot of people will be hit with high priced water in stores. Because of that, the spring and early summer will bring a temporary boost to water levels while snow runs into rivers and eventually flows into Lake Powell. Copyright 2021 Science Friday Initiative. As part of 2019s Drought Contingency Plan, water managers agreed that the reservoirs water should be kept above 3,525 feet to provide a buffer before it got even lower, giving the agencies in charge some time to come up with a fix. And you know, those are cutbacks that users are actually going to feel and that municipal leaders, farmers, tribal users in Arizona are having to plan for right now. LUKE RUNYON: Yeah, and this is a question that has been of intense interest to climate scientists. At this stage a significant amount of Glen Canyon . Balken said depositing the lake's water in Lake Mead, which isn't made out of sandstone,. It's partly that there's less rain and snow, partly that as temperatures rise, plants use more water and more water evaporates out of the soil which would otherwise have ended up in the river. But after more than two decades of drought it is now less than 1,050 feet the lowest since the lake was filled, and falling about a foot a week. Fidelity to the original aired/published audio or video file might vary, and text might be updated or amended in the future. Mead was created when the Hoover Dam was completed in 1935. Its important to differentiate between Lake Powell running dry versus Lake Powell dropping below elevation 3,490 [feet], Taylor Hawes, Colorado River program director at the Nature Conservancy, told The Hill in an interview. He and his wife have four cats, thousands of bees, and a yoga studio in the sleepy Northwest hills of Connecticut. "Based on the best climate data that's available, it's really unlikely that this reservoir is going to be around in the decades to come," Eric Balken of the Glen Canyon Institute told 12News. That deficit is about the same amount of precipitation that falls across Utah in an entire year. At its highest, in 1983, the lake was 3,708 feet above sea level. LinkedIn sets the lidc cookie to facilitate data center selection. On the contrary, he said, its actually become this locus of huge uncertainty, which doesnt allow downstream users to make effective plans, because they dont know what their allocations are going to be. Its companion reservoir, Lake Mead, is at levels almost as low. And this is just the beginning of what. Arizona, which receives 36 percent of its water supply from the river, according to the Arizona Department of Water Resources, has been hit hardest by the cuts. Its not just like, you get a miracle year and youre out of it. Both Utah and Nevada experienced their driest years on record in 2020. These cookies help provide anonymized information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc. Today its about half full, Kuhn said. We are likely witnessing the end of Lake Powell as we knew it in the 80s and 90s, Balken said. Even though conditions may be evolving and getting even worse, we dont really have a way to depict that, because D4, thats that ceiling, she said. 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