Our house was steeped in the melodic hum of Spanish, Cantoneseand English, hushed only by the sound of the front door slamming as my parents shuffled out for work. The governor outperformed previous Democratic turnout in nearly every part of the state in 2018, and over the last four years has spent countless hours traveling to every corner of Illinois to ensure everyone feels represented by his administration, campaign spokeswoman Natalie Edelstein said. Moreover, the stakes are too high to lose faith. Why does this happen? I just try not to say too much to anybody anymore. Voters returned GOP incumbents to their jobs at the top of the ticket and handed the states dominant party its 14th consecutive sweep of statewide offices. Get the latest. That's devastating for blue states, and could soon tip the balance of power in Congress in 2022. Its a phenomenon examined in stunning detail in the documentary Blue to Red: The Shifting of America airing Sunday, July 31, at 9 p.m. Eastern on Newsmax. To put the states seismic political weight into perspective, based on thecurrent electoral map, Democrats could loseArizona,Florida,Michigan,Ohio,Pennsylvaniaand Wisconsin and still take the White House if they won Texas. As the distance widens between the two sections, she said, there are all kinds of potential for really deep disruptions, social disruptions, that arent just about our feelings and our opinions., To Podhorzer, the growing separation means that after the period of fading distinctions, bedrock differences dating back to the countrys founding are resurfacing. economies people flocked to red states and abandoned blue ones in 2022. Spencer drew only 18 percent of the vote. OREGON POLL: @ChristineDrazan 36%@TinaKotek 34%@senbetsyjohnson 19%9% undecidedhttps://t.co/Q4dZtymPg7 pic.twitter.com/NB2cIsLUfm, Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) October 4, 2022. The red nation would rank third. Abbott appeared likely to win by a similar margin as in 2018 possibly larger. On the ground, John Spencer sees everything exactly as Poshard lays out. Governors in both red and blue states have watched their approval ratings sink throughout the pandemic. The GOPs success in Texas, even as it fell short of expectations nationally, signaled voters endorsement of Abbott following a second term marked by aggressive actions on the border and immigration, conservative positions on LGBTQ and other social issues and a near-total ban on abortion. This item: Disney & Pixar's Turning Red Blu-ray [2022] [Region Free] Blu-ray . Republicans and Democrats are battling for control over Congress, while many states are busy holding gubernatorial elections to appoint a new state leader. It may be time to stop talking about red and blue America. It turns out Cuomo is counting on a Democratic controlled Congress to repeal the provision in President Trump's 2017 tax overhaul which capped the federal tax deduction for state and local taxes . CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER, Chicago will continue to be important to the future of Citadel, as many of our colleagues have deep ties to Illinois, Griffin wrote in a letter to staff. Because of that, he said, the labor vote in some areas downstate is trending Republican. Poshard, of downstate Marion, won 43 counties during his bid for governor but lost to Republican George Ryan by less than 4 percentage points. [2] Despite their vastly different approaches to the pandemic, economic challenges, and cultural conflict, all of these governors will almost certainly achieve the same result: reelection. That kind of track record can make the state actually look geographically deep red even though Democrats currently hold every statewide elected office. Abbott began busing undocumented immigrants to other states last spring and has steered $4.4 billion toward his Operation Lone Star mission along the Texas-Mexico border moves that drove Democrats to accuse him of spending taxpayer money on political stunts. The most common activity was discussing leaving with family, followed by searching for a place to live. A purple state is one in which voters' support for the Democratic Party, represented by the color blue, and the Republican Party, represented by the color red, is about equal. New York had the largest overall decline in its population share, a 0.9% drop. Aug. 3, 2021, at 4:50 p.m. States to Watch in the 2022 Midterms. All of these things combine to make this rural-urban divide much greater, he said. Census: US population growth 2nd lowest in history, The nation's political center of gravity shifted further to the Republican-led South and West on Monday, with Texas, Florida and other Sun Belt states gaining congressional seats while chillier climes like New York and Ohio lost them. People do, and that accounts for why Democrats keep winning governors races in Illinois during the past quarter century despite not having a message that resonates throughout all 102 counties. House Republicans are increasingly confident they can make unexpected inroads into some solidly Democratic congressional districts, including in some of the bluest states in the country: California, Connecticut, New York, Oregon and Rhode Island. JB Pritzkers successful 2018 campaign, the number of Illinois counties voting Democratic got smaller and smaller during a 20-year period. After their expected reelections, at least two of these governorsDeSantis and Newsomare positioned to carry their states policy visions into a national competition for the presidency. It is a multipronged, fundamentally antidemocratic movement that has built a solidifying base of institutional support through conservative media networks, evangelical churches, wealthy Republican donors, GOP elected officials, paramilitary white-nationalist groups, and a mass public following. . All of the blue states have expanded access to Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, while about 60 percent of the total red-nation population lives in states that have refused to do so. Either way, Nevada is the exception that proves the rule: The three blue states with the lowest vaccination rates Arizona (45 percent), Nevada (44 percent) and Georgia (38 percent) are also the three blue states with the highest hospitalization rates, as well as three that Trump came closest to winning in 2020. Red state rush: Republican states saw 2022 migration boom, Even Democratic presidents need congressional approval for new programs, Texas will have toughest border security in the nation, Abbott promises conservatives, Manchin blasts Biden retirement plan rule prioritizing a 'liberal policy agenda', When clean energy subsidies arent enough, Twitters Supreme Court case shines fog light on the hazy area of speech and anti-terrorism statute, How one conservative governor can raise his grade on school choice, California Democrats want gender-neutral bathrooms mandatory in all K-12 schools, DeSantis threatens removal of all AP high school classes in war with College Board, Biden student loan forgiveness will cost $400 billion over 10 years, CBO estimates. Rev. In 2018, during his one and only run for the Illinois House, Bailey won with 76% of the vote. Dan] Patrick and all the others.. The governor is proud of the investments his administration has made in rural and downstate communities and will continue to work tirelessly to serve all of Illinois.. Take Californiaand Mississippi. Republicans and Independents stayed home. These states continue to vote for the . Many respondents might imagine moving to someplace renowned for its natural environment, such as Hawaii or Colorado. The path all four governors are taking to reelection is paved with partisanship. As a result, Texas might seem like a lost cause to Democrats across the nation. 9 of the 10 states with the most infections per capita have Republican governors. Hundreds of Texans died and millions more lost power for days when the states electrical grid crashed during a snowstorm in 2021. History, in my view, offers two models. Health outcomes are diverging too. The majority of people in these states have been voting for the Democratic Party for quite a few years now. Voters in Oregon are beginning to favor Christine Drazan, a former Representative in the states House and the current Republican gubernatorial candidate. At a Dec. 8 groundbreaking for a new gambling facility in downstate Carterville, Pritzker took issue with the premise on which a reporters question was partly based that he was not well regarded in far southern Illinois. Many have worried that these refugees may be foolish enough to bring blue-state . And red states across the Sun Belt rank among the nations fastest growing in population. Just32%of Texans want to make abortion laws stricter, yet Republicans bannedup to 90%of abortions,primarily affectingwomen of color. We also asked Republican respondents to choose head-to-head between DeSantis and Trump. A 13-year-old girl named Meilin turns into a giant red panda whenever she gets too excited. The trend of population migration Democratically dominated blue states to Republican-controlled red states is examined in the documentary Blue to Red: The Shifting of America airing Sunday, at 9 p.m. Eastern on Newsmax. Lower taxes, Republican legislatures, and stronger pandemic economies people flocked to red states and abandoned blue ones in 2022. It doesnt matter if Im in Clay County, in Louisville, Ill. Pritzkers campaign has made clear it doesnt aim to cede any of that turf next November to whatever Republican prevails in the June 28, 2022 primary, and that it hopes to build on 2018s results. (ConservativeJournal.org) The midterms are just around the corner. But it does mean that the 2020s may bring the greatest threats to the countrys basic stability since those dark and tumultuous years. In California, a remarkable 70% of Republicans said they are interested in leaving the state, compared to 27% of Democrats. Election results left Republicans and conservatives cheering, but also made clear that a battle very much rages within the Democratic Party - the dominant party in New York State - Not a one-Democrat, one-Republican in the Senate state like Florida was for many years. The flurry of socially conservative laws that red states have passed since 2021, on issues such as abortion; classroom discussions of race, gender, and sexual orientation; and LGBTQ rights, is widening this split. Right-to-work laws are common in the red states and nonexistent in the blue, with the result that the latter have a much higher share of unionized workers than the former. The NAR noted in its report that many of the areas that saw the most people relocating featured economies where the labor market had bounded back since the early days of the coronavirus pandemic, which featured state and local governments across the United States shutting down or restricting business operations in an effort to quell the virus. In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden laid claim to just 14 Illinois counties. Biden's victory, and the matter in which he won, left many political pundits. Tesla CEO Elon Musk made waves in 2021 when he announced that he was relocating the electric car giants headquarters from the tech hub of Silicon Valley in California to Austin, Texas. As the progressive wing of the party ascends nationally, everyday Texans are moving in lockstep. (Some red-state Republicans are even distantly echoing Calhoun in promising to nullifythat is, defyfederal laws with which they disagree.) Currently, 16 states are considered to be a part of the Blue Wall. Republicans also seemed poised to add slightly to their majorities in the Texas Legislature, where theyve controlled both chambers for 20 years, and held large leads in all statewide judicial races. This election season, Texans around the state will turn to The Texas Tribune for the information they need on voting, election results, analysis of key races and more. The results highlight just how closely the country is split when selecting between governors who have developed two radically different state-level policy visions. In California, for all its dissatisfied people, only 2% had taken all four actions. Specifically, Republicans are more likely to want to leave California and New York and more Democrats are more likely to want to leave Texas and Florida. The reluctance extends beyond those interested. Spencer lives next door to Baileys legislative office in Louisville, the county seat, and looks out at the county courthouse where Bailey originally litigated against Pritzker, challenging the governors authority to issue and then extend his stay-at-home orders early in the pandemic. Forbes magazine says the shift in population has been as much political as it has been economic. STATE OF THE ECONOMYTAKING HITS AND RUNNING UP DEFICITS. More than half of Republicans (58%) and Democrats (55%) said they thought about moving to a state where the government better reflects their political and policy values, while 69% of Democrats and 65% of Republicans considered moving . So I went to work at Walmart, he said. Democrats went from winning 43 counties in the 1998 governors race down to a dismal one county in the 2014 race, in which Democratic incumbent Gov. Bailey is one of three downstate Republicans to publicly declare their intentions to take on Pritzker next year. The gap was smaller but still large in New York, with 63% of Republicans expressing an interest in moving, compared with 34% of Democrats. The analysis relied on the United States Postal Services change-of-address data to identify domestic migration patterns. Regardless of the margins Rauner put up in them, they werent enough to overcome Pritzker winning four out of five of the collar counties and taking Cook County by historic margins. With these three states shifted into those categories, the two nations are almost equal in eligible voting-age population, and the blue advantage in GDP roughly doubles, with the blue section contributing 48 percent and the red just 35 percent. that, using census data, found from April 2020 to July 2021, the top states for inbound migration were Florida, Texas, Arizona, the Carolinas, and Tennessee. This red-and-blue states scenario became a thing of conscience with George W. Bush, in 2000, who failed to win back states his father, and their GOP predecessors, had carried routinely. That can't be good," Chishti said. Florida just does whatever it wants though and is impossible to predict, especially this far out. Nov. 9, 202212 AM Central. Conversely, in each state, no more than 5% overall said they were financially much better off. Maps: What's the Real Red and Blue Balance of State Government? One of the ladies that I work with up at Walmart, I talked to her last week and I asked her, Hey, did you ever get your coronavirus shot yet? Oh, no. This maxim would clearly preclude New Mexico's shift from blue to red, considering its diversity: approximately 49.3% of New Mexico's residents are Latino, while 11% are Native American. But Arizona is a blue state. Nationally and in Illinois, thats concerning, Jacobson said. Nearly one-fourth of Democratic voters (24% in California and 23% in New York) described themselves as worse off or much worse off now than they were two years ago, yet about 9 of 10 Democrats in those states will vote for Governors Newsom and Hochul. Thats all theyre concerned about is guns and abortion.. ), Our survey asked respondents across the nation to register their early preferences for the 2024 presidential race. Only about a fifth searched for a new job; further, not very many at all learned about new schools. Americas future is Texas. In that match-up, Trump leads DeSantis, 55-45%a slimmer margin than when they were part of a larger field. Among Democrats, California appears to be a bit more attractive than New York, and there is some interest in the red states as well. I couldnt buy a job now if I wanted one in the line of construction, because nobody wants a Democrat on their property.. The country is bifurcating, Bolling says in the film. The GOP's defending 20 of the 34 seats up for grabs in 2022. On the presidential preference question including both Biden and Trump, we asked all respondents to choose from a field that included both Republican and Democratic potential candidates. And quickly. It doesnt matter if Im in the inner city of Chicago. He won in remote downstate counties like Alexander, in more populated places like Peoria and Rock Island counties and in university-dominated counties like Champaign, Knox and DeKalb. There is, however, reason to be hopeful. Since 1972, Clay County has drifted back and forth between Democratic and Republican candidates for governor, voting for Walker in 1972, Democratic nominee Neil Hartigan in 1990 and Poshard in 1998. Period.. Among Republicans, former President Trump is the most popular, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis clearly the leading alternative. To truly feel the effects of a demographic change, whether its young voters or new people coming in from perhaps more liberal states, people are going to have to turn out to vote, Cross said. If Democrats have anything to show for this election, its that they won two of three congressional seats up for grabs in South Texas denying Republicans their hopes of statement victories in a heavily Hispanic region. Its our 10th year participating in Amplify, and to celebrate, weve got $15,000 in matching funds from four generous Tribune supporters. Per capita spending on elementary and secondary education is almost 50 percent higher in the blue states compared with red. He said the resolution, which sought to put up clear boundaries between red and blue Illinois, attracted the attention of separation groups. But it went nowhere and now, as a candidate for statewide office, Bailey said he no longer embraces the concept and that Illinois is better off together.. Drazan has thus far focused her campaign on issues such as public safety. The association had pumped $15 million into Florida in the previous two election cycles. The pattern of Democrats contracting into more densely populated areas while surrendering big swathes of political turf is already shaping the contours of the still-early 2022 gubernatorial campaign. These results are part of a larger survey project conducted by the CMC-Rose Institute Poll during the 2022 election cycle. Simultaneously, the regional differences were moderated by waves of national investment, including the New Deal spending on rural electrification, the Tennessee Valley Authority, agricultural price supports, and Social Security during the 1930s, and the Great Society programs that provided federal aid for K12 schools and higher education, as well as Medicare and Medicaid. Democrats, who have been advocating for expanding voter access and reproductive health, have made significant gains in Texas. During the seven decades of legal Jim Crow segregation from the 1890s through the 1960s, the principal goal of the southern states at the core of red America was defensive: They worked tirelessly to prevent federal interference with state-sponsored segregation but did not seek to impose it on states outside the region. No, not a one-time blue but normally light red like North Carolina. "COVID isn't a red state or blue state issue. Predicting three states flipping blue to red, four or more Senate seats blue to red and at least 60 house seats blue to red. The share of kids in poverty is more than 20 percent lower in the blue section than red, and the share of working households with incomes below the poverty line is nearly 40 percent lower. And it was another rebuke of Democratic gubernatorial nominee Beto ORourke, who lost his third election in four years. All the evidence, anecdotal and empirical, is there to show that the top-of-the-ticket Democratic wins by Mark Kelly . He identified Illinois as among 14 states with the strongest county-by-county Democratic declines during the five presidential cycles after 2000. Pritzkers count greatly exceeded the four counties Democrat Pat Quinn won in his 2010 election and the lone county that lined up with him in his unsuccessful 2014 reelection. The increasing divergenceand antagonismbetween the red nation and the blue nation is a defining characteristic of 21st-century America. Blue State May Finally Turn Red, Polling Shows (ConservativeJournal.org) - The midterms are just around the corner. Jacobson documented a similar trend of Republicans dominating Democrats on a county-by-county basis across the country during the past five presidential cycles in a report published by the University of Virginia Center for Politics Sabato Crystal Ball.. 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